Conspiracy Theory Theater, Madoka Edition, Mark 4.
Alright, let’s run with the whole “Kyubey is behind everything” angle. Kyubey’s orchestrating this whole scenario. He gives chicks power, forces them into his little games, likely creates witches through some means, blahblah. Assuming that, for some reason Kyubey needs Madoka. There’s some reason why she’s his primary mark. He tells her she’s special. He stays with her rather than Sayaka during the “recruitment” phase. Madoka’s some sort of anime-styled “chosen one” that’s needed for whatever shit Kyubey’s scheming to go down.
First off: Why is that? Let’s make a major logical leap.
Madoka’s mom was/is a magical girl. Back in the day, I’m willing to bet that Madoka’s mom made a pact of some sort. Maybe it was with Kyubey, maybe it was with another magical pet thing. It would explain her mom’s attitude towards life, since the mom’s perspective mirrors that which Mami and Kyubey tried to pound into Madoka’s head. I’m willing to bet that the mom’s past experiences as a magical girl led to her present outlook. And I’m willing to bet that her wish had something to do with starting a family or finding a way to make her husband fall for her or maybe helped lead to her current career.
Regardless of her wish, yeah, I bet she’s a retired magical girl. And this might make Madoka special in some way. Maybe this is exceptionally rare. From the looks of things, magical girls have a low life expectancy, so to see one get to an age where she can have kids may be something pretty exceptional. Maybe some of her magical prowess has been passed onto Madoka, making her a natural for whatever it is that Kyubey’s has in store.
Kyubey needs Madoka. He needs her badly. So what does he do? He finds ways to force Madoka to make a pact with him. If granting a wish doesn’t work, drag her along to show her how serious this is. Maybe if Madoka sees how much she’s needed to fight witches, maybe she’ll pull the trigger. If that doesn’t work, arrange for the current magical girl to have a little “accident.” Make Madoka want to fill the void. Now that this hasn’t worked, go for the peer pressure angle. Arrange for Sayaka to have a character-developing moment with her sick buddy. Twist the dude’s emotions so that he freaks out and pushes Sayaka to make a pact. Maybe Madoka will jump if she sees her best buddy jump as well.
I don’t see this working. If anything, Madoka will be relieved that someone else decides to take the risk, especially if it’s someone she knows. With peer pressure failing, call in an outside magical girl to deal with the newbie. Gank Sayaka’s ass and force Madoka’s hand.
The catch is that the character Madoka best resembles is Shinji Ikari. The weight of the world is placed on both of their shoulders, and both of them cower in the face of massive responsibility. The only reason why Shinji ever got in an Eva Unit is because he saw a chick that resembled his mother about to be forced into one in his place. It’s gonna take something that severe and personal before Madoka even considers making a pact.
The Sayaka gambit isn’t gonna work. Sayaka’s gonna do her thing, only to either die or get severely hurt in the process. But that isn’t gonna change Madoka’s attitude. There’s always Homura, and even once she’s removed it’s gonna take a direct attack on Madoka’s family before she finally caves in. It might not even take the deaths of her father and her little brother before she finally caves in.
It’s all gonna come down to Madoka’s mother somehow. Her fate is going to determine Madoka’s fate. There’s no other reason why they would play up their relationship and make it parallel Madoka’s magical girling if that wasn’t the case.
Sorry to say it, Madoka’s mom, but you’re screwed.